[ Φ ]Fat Tail
SPEAK TO US→
[ PRODUCT 02 ][ Φ ]

Investment
Challenge.

An objective second opinion from people with no stake in the answer.

Investment teams send Fat Tail material investment ideas, research, trade proposals, high-conviction theses or portfolio decisions. Our senior quants independently attempt to challenge them — not to automatically reject, but to subject conviction to serious, adversarial scrutiny before capital is deployed.

WE CHALLENGE YOUR INVESTMENTS.

Send us a thesis→
[ A ]INDEPENDENCE

No position.
No P&L.
No ego.
Just challenge.

We have no position in the idea, no P&L riding on the outcome, no ownership of the thesis and no need for the trade to happen. That independence is fundamental to the product.

The investment team builds the case. Fat Tail tries to break it. What survives the challenge earns its place in the portfolio.

Your team builds the case. We try to break it.

[ B ]WHAT WE EXAMINE

Where strong theses break.

  • ×Core assumptions
  • ×Contradictory evidence
  • ×Hidden factor exposures
  • ×Crowdedness
  • ×Liquidity
  • ×Correlation
  • ×Macro vulnerabilities
  • ×Scenario sensitivity
  • ×Historical analogues
  • ×Portfolio interaction
  • ×Non-linear downside
  • ×Timing risk
  • ×Confirmation bias
  • ×Thesis-breaking evidence
[ C ]THE WORKFLOW

Eight steps from thesis to decision.

  1. [ 01 ]Receive the thesisYou send the idea, research, memo or trade proposal.
  2. [ 02 ]Deconstruct assumptionsIsolate the core beliefs the thesis depends on.
  3. [ 03 ]Test the evidenceValidate data, timeframes and historical support.
  4. [ 04 ]Stress the tradeFactor, macro, liquidity and non-linear stress.
  5. [ 05 ]Search for contradictionsActively hunt evidence the thesis is wrong.
  6. [ 06 ]Identify failure modesWhere and how this idea specifically breaks.
  7. [ 07 ]Deliver independent challengeWritten brief with quant evidence.
  8. [ 08 ]Client decidesYou retain the investment decision, always.
[ D ]POSSIBLE OUTCOMES

Six recommendations. One decision — yours.

[ 01 ]

PROCEED

[ 02 ]

PROCEED WITH CONDITIONS

[ 03 ]

REFINE

[ 04 ]

REDUCE

[ 05 ]

RECONSIDER

[ 06 ]

DO NOT PROCEED

The purpose is not automatically to reject investments. It is to make conviction survive independent scrutiny.

[ NEXT ]

Also see Product 01: Outsourced Risk Office.

RISK OFFICE→